A Stroke of Genius: Priming, Timing and Human Behaviour

This month’s Harvard Business Review highlights new research showing the potential impact of priming – a psychological process where a stimulus predisposes people to react in a certain way.

An experiment by research scientists at the Max Planck Institute in Germany found that golfers primed to believe that they were using a putter used by a professional golfer were 32% more successful at sinking putts than a control group that was told nothing. Similarly, the primed group estimated that the hole was 9% bigger than the control group of golfers. The golfers who believed they were playing with a professional’s club thought they’d perform better, so they did.

The research echoes similar findings Linstock unearthed as part of a recent academic review for Fidelity’s pension business in the UK. Research shows that exposing people to words associated with the elderly e.g. wrinkles means that they walk much more slowly when leaving the room and have a poorer memory of the room. On the flipside, participants asked to make sentence out of words like lean, fit, active, athletic are much more likely to use the stairs instead of the lift.

But what are the implications for communicators working on behaviour change campaigns? Firstly, priming can and does work. Secondly, techniques used to target the sub-conscious can sometimes be more effective at changing behaviours than the more obvious appeals to reason.

But there still remains a question mark over the longer-term impact of priming techniques. Once the prime is removed, people often return to their original state. Likewise, priming is just one of a number of behavioural influences. To truly affect longer term behaviour, a number of these influencers need to be used together. Researchers, including members of the MINDSPACE team in the Cabinet Office, are working hard to understand these types of affects and apply them in behavioural change campaigns.

While they continue their experiments, I’m just about to give the team a handful of pens used by Einstein.  

Simon Maule

Director

simon@linstockcommunications.com

Is backbencher backbiting overshadowing leadership?

As first seen in Professional Manager

Politics used to be all about the “big beasts”: frontbench heavyweights with big personalities and big ideas. But a succession of political leaders has shifted power away from the Cabinet and Shadow Cabinet, and towards small cabals of advisers and acolytes.

In doing so, they have drawn policy decisions even further away from MPs on the party fringes, leading to a number of flashpoints between leaders and disgruntled backbenchers. Tony Blair was able to placate these MPs through a mixture of charm, bluff and minor concessions. But David Cameron has found this a much harder task.

Cameron’s backbenchers include the usual collection of lickspittling careerists – but they also contain a large number of MPs willing to risk career stagnation in order to challenge the party hierarchy. In addition to a familiar group of elder statesmen and embittered former ministers, this includes new, youthful backbench MPs from a diverse range of backgrounds. Given the broad church that these Conservatives represent, Cameron and his supporters have found it hard to whip them into line. As a consequence, rebellions have grown to a level approaching insurgency.

In stark contrast, Ed Miliband faces more benign objections from Labour backbenchers. Following a start to his leadership in which his momentum seemed glacial, Miliband was beset with questions over his competence. But improved performances at PMQs and a greater deftness with managing conflicting Old and New Labour factions has shored up his position and quelled backbench criticism.

What, then, of the Lib Dems? Nick Clegg has found his approach questioned by backbenchers on more than one occasion, but on the whole, most seem to accept that the party is locked in a loveless marriage with the Conservatives, and that any further turmoil would only harm the party and its chances for re-election.

The last government was characterised by its clashes between Brown and Blair – but this bickering did not prevent the party from presenting a (relatively) unified front in public. Both figures understood that party infighting is a guaranteed vote loser.

The difference for Cameron is that he is not faced with an ambitious colleague looking to dethrone him, but numerous colleagues questioning the government’s direction. It may well be highfalutin ideals that power these rebels. And their rebellions may be symptomatic of their simple desire to make a mark. Nonetheless, Cameron needs to find a way to placate them if he wants any chance of retaining power at the next election.

John Hood
Consultant
john@linstockcommunications.com

150 Million Olympic Tweets, but who won Gold?

It was a question asked on Radio 4 today and it’s worthy of closer examination. The Institute of Practitioners in Advertising has estimated there were 150 million Olympic related tweets sent during the Games. That’s 150 million tweets across 16 days, a pretty staggering figure. But we already knew that London 2012 had captured the public’s imagination. The real question is how have businesses used Twitter to cash in on this activity?

Brands have recognised that getting people to talk about them is the real boon of social media. The more people talk about a brand, the more familiar they are with it, the more popular it becomes and the more likely people are to invest in it. It sounds a hopelessly simplistic description of human behaviour, but by and large it rings true. Familiarity breeds favourability, not contempt.

In the main, companies have learnt to reject the corporate ‘hard-sell’ from a generic company Twitter account. Instead, businesses focused on individual athletes and competitors.  A company like Adidas has done particularly well by sponsoring high-profile athletes, both through traditional mediums such as billboards as well as via social media like Twitter. In fact some estimates suggest the number of people following Adidas on Twitter has increased ten-fold during the Games.

Another question this has raised is whether Twitter and social media is effectively making traditional forms of advertising and marketing redundant. The simple answer is, no. In many cases social media is being used to accentuate the effects of TV advertising. If anything, social media is working best in partnership with traditional methods of engagement.

So another win for Twitter and the social media revolution, right? Yes and no. Twitter’s effectiveness in generating debate on brands is almost unparalleled. But understanding how this can be effectively translated into increasing sales, for example, is a much trickier process, and one a number of brands are grappling with.

Perhaps the most important lesson to be learnt from this is that we should not forget the ‘social’ aspect of social media. It is still about conversations between people, not organisations. For brands to use Twitter effectively, they mustn’t lose sight of this. 

John Hood

Consultant

john@linstockcommunications.com 

A fair cop? Police Commissioners and the oath of impartiality

Last week we blogged on how the process to elect new local Police Commissioners in November might lead to a lack of independent candidates and possible political bias. In the last couple of days, there has been an interesting development as the Home Office confirmed that all Commissioners will have to swear an ‘Oath of impartiality’ once they start their role. 

The thinking behind this is obvious. It makes a public contract between these Commissioners and the people who elect them and acts as a symbol of the commitment to serve their communities properly and responsibly. But will it actually work? A few commentators have suggested an oath will make a good headline, but will actually do little to affect behaviour. Besides, surely they should be behaving in this way anyway?

Interestingly, however, there is academic research which suggests this type of ‘public commitment-making’ actually works. Psychologist Dan Ariely set some students in the US a number of tests. On some tests the correct answers were already pre-marked and, predictably, those scores came back higher. But when asked to sign an ‘honour code’ on the test paper, even with correct answers marked, the cheating stopped. What this tells us is that when faced with issues of honesty and integrity (in this case a fictitious ‘honour code’), we are more encouraged to behave in this manner.

But, as with lots of tools developed to affect behaviour change, research shows only a short-term impact. To really influence long-term behaviour, there is an argument that pledges need to be made on a regular basis. Otherwise, human nature dictates that other factors and biases will increasingly come into play.

So going back to the Police Commissioners, perhaps this public pledge initially will have a positive impact on behaviour. But arguably, it should go even further. These high-profile roles will involve regularly making big decisions which will have significant consequences. Likewise, Commissioners are expected to serve a four year term. To ensure impartiality remains front of mind, perhaps the oath should be considered as a yearly – even six-monthly – event, rather than a one-off pledge at the outset, or some other means found to remind Commissioners of their responsibilities. 

Tom Yazdi

Consultant

tom@linstockcommunications.com

Independent PC candidates plod along

As one countdown finishes, another begins. Today marks three months to go until the elections for local Police and Crime Commissioners, which will take place on 15 November.

The majority of recent media coverage has focused on concerns that the election process may disadvantage independent candidates. This is a particularly potent issue because one of the main criticisms when the idea of Commissioners was suggested was that it would politicise the police service. The fact that the process may be skewed in favour of candidates from established political parties is likely to discourage ‘ordinary’ people from running and therefore it will fail to depoliticise the role.

The main problems highlighted are the cost of taking part and the lack of centralised support. The most recent issue is the news that there will not be a state-funded mailshot to all voters. Independent candidates say that this is “perverse, undemocratic and unjust” because candidates from established political parties have much larger budgets and can therefore afford to do more to promote themselves.

The Government’s proposed solution to the problem is to create a website with details of all candidates on it. However, the Electoral Commission has warned that this disadvantages the seven million people across the UK who do not have internet access. In addition, Policing Minister Nick Herbert has suggested that independent candidates can use social media and local PR activity to capture public attention.

If only it were that simple! Journalists at local newspapers and radio stations are likely to focus on big names that their readers and listeners will already know, which again suits candidates from established political parties. Just ask Siobhan Benita, the independent candidate who ran in the London Mayoral elections and complained that she was excluded from programmes during her campaign. In addition, only having information available on a website relies on voters being bothered to log on and search for it – far more effort than glancing at a pamphlet that falls through the letterbox.

If we are not careful, only a few candidates will run in the elections and the lack of public trust in the established political system will lead to voter apathy. Establishing Police and Crime Commissioners could be one of the biggest shake-ups of the policing sector we’ve seen in a long time. Candidates deserve exposure and a competitive fight, and the voters deserve a wider pool of people to vote from than the same old faces.

So, here are some basic tips for prospective independent candidates still willing to have a go:

- Act like a leader: in your dress and demeanour, and by demonstrating your experience of managing large budgets and big organisations.

- Demonstrate empathy: show people that you really understand local issues, and use facts and examples to add flavour to your speeches and interviews.

- Focus on a few issues: don’t try to be all things to all people, instead choose one or two key topics and hang your campaign on those issues.

- Play on your independence: make the lack of public trust in politics work in your favour, by emphasising that you are not part of the establishment and will be a break away from the past.

Three months is a long time in politics, so we shouldn’t count the independents out of the race quite yet.

Jo Nussbaum
Consultant
jo@linstockcommunications.com

London 2012 – a nudge in the right direction?

Much has been made of how the London 2012 Olympics have felt different to previous ones. By putting volunteers front and centre, celebrating their generosity and sacrifice alongside those of the athletes, the Games were built as much on fun and participation as they were sporting excellence. This was something new, something refreshing, and something that seemed to perfectly capture the elusive ‘Olympic spirit’.

But this isn’t all. Generous applause has also been reserved for the London 2012 communications team. If Beijing 2012 was the model of an authoritarian approach to organisation, London was the epitome of a ‘nudge’ Olympics, it was argued, with participants subtly pushed towards engagement rather than cajoled or coerced.

The Economist in particular seized on this concept, suggesting for example that free bus passes for those attending events persuaded them to use public transport rather than their cars. But while this may be true, it fails to tell us why this approach proved so successful, or the principles that underpinned it.

There are several principles that seem to be at work here. First, provision of bus passes presented visitors with an explicit choice to make (bus or car) that encouraged them to think more carefully about the implications of their transport choices. Normally, the choice would be implicit and people would automatically go by car without any further consideration. Nudging people towards explicit decision making increases the likelihood that they will break their usual habits. This nudge also increases the likelihood that they will take account of relevant external information, in this case travel advice from the organisers.

Second, the herding instinct means that people have a strong tendency to do what others do and not be seen to be different. They are particularly concerned not to act differently when this may lead to a relatively worse outcome than experienced by the majority.  Communications outlining what most were doing during the Games, and how much they were enjoying themselves, was a powerful nudge inducing others to follow.

What London did so well was to focus on changing people’s behaviours. But it will be interesting to see whether this leads to longer term behavioural change now that these nudges are no longer present.

John Hood

Consultant

john@linstockcommunications.com

Team DC blunders while Team GB soars

The summer parliamentary recess provides the perfect opportunity for politicians to unwind and recharge their batteries. But it also provides that most dangerous of doubled-edged swords – the holiday photo op. The average Joe has a fairly easy choice to make when it comes to their holiday – what can I afford, and where would I like to go? Pity the poor politician then. Despite having the pick of the world’s luxury resorts, they also have to find a location that doesn’t alienate voters. Too flash and they reflect an image of privilege, too humble and it seems forced.

In recent years the ‘staycation’ has become the holiday of choice for political leaders, with UK holidays picked over breaks in more exotic foreign climbs. It’s the ‘safe bet’ holiday, the austerity era holiday. It demonstrates restraint, common-man qualities, and perhaps even a smidgeon of patriotism. However, it’s not without its risks.

This year has provided the ultimate Staycation for politicians, a home Olympics. But the summer months are slow for newspapers, and the holidaying of politicians is something of a fillip, a great way to fill column inches. A photo of David Cameron watching a boxing match on TV in full GB regalia has already been seized upon by irreverent social media users mocking its forced casualness. There’s little politicians can do to avoid this media scrutiny, but there are a couple of steps they can take to limit such an own-goal.

The first is to understand the zeitgeist. The British public has shown a genuine appetite for the Olympics and pride in the achievements of GB athletes and organisers. But this should not be confused with enthusiasm for politicians and their involvement. Being seen to share in public celebrations is fine, being seen to share in the success of athletes, less so.

The second is to move away from the staged photo opportunity - its premeditation is ripe for parody. A better approach may be video content captured by a third party. Unlike photos, this is harder to stage. This has its own problems, but it demonstrates a greater sense of spontaneity and, in the case of these Olympics, of genuine shared emotion between politician and public.

The Olympics have been a boon for the country, but for politicians to benefit from this unusual holiday venue, they need to make sure they don’t force the issue. This means a response which places them with the public’s position of enthusiastic reverence and not on the same pedestal as the athletes.

John Hood
Consultant
john@linstockcommunications.com

In the frame: why PPI refunds are boosting the UK economy

Press reports out this week highlight that refunds of mis-sold payment protection insurance (PPI) are providing a welcome boost to the UK economy. Some £4.8 billion has already been paid out with a further £5 billion yet to be claimed.

This unexpected cash – with average payouts of £2,750 – is encouraging people to fix the roof, go on holiday and generally start spending again. But why are people spending this cash and not saving it or paying down their debt? New theories from psychology can help to explain, and indeed predict, this type of economic activity.

Research on mental accounting shows that how people make sense of financial situations determines their financial decision making. Most critical is whether they frame the situation in terms of gains or losses. For example, a tax rebate is generally framed in terms of the return of a loss and this leads to a strong tendency for saving. In contrast to this, when money is given in ways that induce a positive framing – for example a bonus – they are less likely to save and more likely to spend it.

In 2001, the US Government failed to take account of this effect when using a tax rebate policy to try to stimulate the economy by increasing consumer spending. The policy was much less effective than predicted with most (78%) intending to save rather than spend this money.

These findings challenge a key assumption underpinning classical economic theory that assumes money is fungible – that is, a pound in one context is perfectly interchangeable with a pound in any another context. They also demonstrate that predicting how people react to changes in their economic circumstances depends crucially on how they make sense of the situation.

However, not all economists have learned these lessons. Jonathan Portes, director of the National Institute for Economic and Social Research has suggested that PPI refunds have had the same economic effect as a tax cut. Insights from mental accounting research suggest the opposite - the boost to the British economy is due to PPI payments being framed positively, unlike tax rebates which are generally framed negatively.

Professor John Maule,
Linstock Associate

The Olympics and the race for borrowed glory

As first seen on Professional Manager

Politicians love a sporting event on home turf, and none more so than an Olympics. Apart from providing the perfect excuse to lounge in front of some handball and slalom canoeing, they can also glean some of the glory from athletes’ successes.

But what happens when things go wrong?

This year’s Games have already seen a calamitous approach to security and a dearth of spectators at some events, and yet the general public seems entirely uninterested in these problems – perhaps what really matters is the results.

In this sense, Cameron would seem to have a clear political advantage over Miliband. With a free ticket to events, he has the perfect opportunity to provide a ready smile for the cameras after any British success. It may be a crude approach, a sort of “glory by association”, but it’s a well-trodden path and one Miliband will no doubt wish he could follow.

Of course, it’s not a flawless plan. Cameron has already waited expectantly for British victory in the men’s road race and diving events. In both cases Britain was expected a medal; in both cases they came away empty handed. Commentators have already coined a phrase for this uncanny ability to pre-empt sporting failure – the ‘Cameron Curse’. Tabloid punning is unlikely to worry the Government too much at this stage, but should Team GB fail to meet sky-high expectations, it could become a more serious problem.

The Games are expected to renew national confidence and breathe life into a flagging economy. If the athletes perform, it might just happen. But if they don’t, Cameron may be reminded that the race for political office is a marathon, not a sprint.

John Hood
Consultant
john@linstockcommunications.com

British Bullet Needs a Mullet? A New Twist in the Wiggo Helmet Debate

Our newly crowned cycling champ, Bradley Wiggins, has taken to twitter this afternoon to clarify his comments about cycling helmets. The two-wheeled modfather has put the brakes on reports in today’s papers that claim he said there should be a law to force cyclists to wear helmets.

But, before he swerves the debate around cycle safety, perhaps he should take a closer look at emerging academic research looking at the benefits of a brand new design of headgear - the wig helmet. Research carried out by an academic at Bath University claims that a helmet adorned with a blonde flowing wig is proven to keep drivers from overtaking too close.

The study, conducted by traffic psychologist Dr Walker, found that drivers give a much wider berth to ‘female’ riders with long hair, compared to cyclists wearing a conventional helmet – on average 14cm further. Part of the reason may be that cyclists with helmets are thought to be more experienced

http://www.eta.co.uk/2011/04/01/safest-bicycle-helmet-has-built-wig

A more detailed academic paper is expected to expand on the findings later this year.

In the meantime, Brad is taking a well earned rest following his success at the Olympics and Tour de France. But, when he finally gets back out on the road, he may want to truly live up to his Wiggo nickname by adding some flowing locks to his famous sideburns.    

Simon Maule

Director

simon@linstockcommunications.com