Media coverage and the mayoral election

London’s mayoral election has finally turned nasty. Inevitable perhaps given the personalities involved, but as the faux bonhomie between Red Ken and Toff Boris subsides, the sense of anticipation of a good old fashioned ding-dong of smear and counter-smear is palpable within the national media. As they continue to tear strips off one another, the media focus has understandably fallen on the two front-runners. But a question few have asked is ‘how has this affected the other candidates?’ The conventional wisdom is that, starved of the crucial oxygen of publicity, they will disappear in the electoral winds, voting chaff to ‘KenBo’s’ wheat. But is conventional wisdom right?

Certainly, at face-value, the polls would suggest so. The latest poll by YouGov has given Boris 45% of first preference voters, Ken 40%, Brian Paddick 7% and UKIP’s Lawrence Webb 3%, with the Green’s Jenny Jones pushed into a tied fourth place for the first time on just 2% alongside independent Siobhan Benita. So far so good, right? Maybe, but the final name on that list should raise some eyebrows; the relationship between media coverage and voting patterns may be more nuanced. Benita’s rise to joint fourth in the polls is a result of an extremely small media profile and even smaller funding. Yes, she is some way off challenging the big guns, but it’s still a remarkable achievement. It’s also true that press coverage of Benita has increased as the campaign has moved on, but compared to the other established names, it’s been fairly limited until recently. Moreover, it seems the media’s interest in Benita has occurred as a result of her popularity, rather than actively helping to drive it.

Plenty have questioned the media coverage she is now enjoying, and as a relative political tyro, this seems a genuine question to ask. But the dismissiveness of this commentary highlights the seriousness with which the major parties are beginning to take her. Of course, there is no concern that she might genuinely win, but after George Galloway’s recent landslide by-election victory, political parties are wary of the embarrassment of election bloody-noses being dealt by fringe candidates.

Some observers see this as a shift in voting, the advent of gesture politics, where voters are more interested in providing the major parties with a two-finger salute at the ballot box than determining which candidate best fits with their personal priorities and beliefs. But in reality, it represents a communications challenge as old as the hills – how do you make your message genuinely personal while appealing to a large audience. George Galloway neatly by-passed this concern altogether by focusing on issues of relevance to a specific demographic large enough to get him elected. But Benita’s “mum’s common sense” has provided a more ‘everywoman’ quality, neatly marrying high-end political objectives such as better transport and lower crime with the high-concern nimbyism of dog mess and bin collections. It’s a potent blend, and it should remind mainstream politicians, should they need it, of the power of connecting at a grass-roots level with simple messaging.

This question of how to deliver a grass-roots mobilisation of votes has vexed politicians for years, and will continue to exercise those looking for election in the forthcoming mayoral elections around the country. Siobhan Benita’s success has been built upon a perceived transparency. She has no apparent agenda and there is no obvious craven careerism; just policies based on her own experiences, experiences that mirror many of those of fellow Londoners. For politicians of major political parties, complete with the baggage of past administrations and their policies, this is not such an easy proposal. Ken Livingstone has already found that the image of a rebellious outsider he so successfully cultivated prior to his election has quickly eroded since his reintroduction into the Labour party. If the most recent polls are accurate, Londoners are not quite ready to do away with the old parties just yet. But with confidence in mainstream politics at an all-time low, it seems mayoral candidates seen as less in thrall to their parties may be better placed to achieve office than those with the full weight of the party machine and its media influence behind them.

John Hood
Consultant
john@linstockcommunications.com