House of Lords reform is a political house of cards

Despite being a perpetual topic of interest to the political classes, the vast majority of the electorate seem entirely unconcerned by our strange system of hereditary peers, bishops and appointed members.

If the AV referendum last year proved anything it was that public sentiment towards political reform oscillates between indifference and mild scepticism. Today, as MPs prepare to vote on proposed reforms to the second chamber, the electorate prepares to collectively shrug its shoulders.

But despite being an issue that rarely gets the public’s pulses racing, the fallout of today’s vote could be substantial. Should the Government lose the vote, it would be its first significant defeat in the House of Commons. Foreign Secretary William Hague has already described it as test of the Coalition, and with Labour set to join as many as 100 Conservative backbenchers in voting against the reforms, it looks like a test it will fail.

For Labour, a Government defeat would allow them to highlight cracks in the Coalition and within the Conservative party. For Cameron, it would demonstrate a challenge to his leadership and the limited power of Government whips. The Liberal Democrats, who have placed great emphasis on reforming the House of Lords, would see it as an embarrassing bloody nose.

The electorate may care little about House of Lords reform, but they do care about internal conflicts within political parties. Few will vote for a party seen to be divided or disloyal. To date the Coalition has handled the tensions between party interests and the need for Government consensus remarkably well. The Government may not be popular, but it is seen to be relatively stable.

A defeat on House of Lords reform could change this. More than ever, Coalition partners would need to find the right balance between pulling together to demonstrate unity to the public, while simultaneously pushing back in order to appease agitating backbenchers. From a communications perspective, it’s a difficult tightrope to walk.


John Hood
Consultant
john@linstockcommunications.com