From the thick of it

A week can be a long time in politics.  If you're a Liberal Democrat, it can be a lot longer.  And if you're Gordon Brown, it can be an eternity.

Yesterday's gaffe has dominated today's press.  Commentators are poring over the polls to determine the public's response and it makes grim reading for Labour supporters. Some say Mr Brown’s candid moment will go down in the history books as the death of the New Labour movement. Whether this argument holds up remains to be seen, and the peculiarities of our voting system should prevent a doomsday scenario. But what does this mean for the other parties, particularly the Liberal Democrats?

The week began with the cautious optimism that seems to pervade Cowley Street these days. An unexpectedly benign Sunday press was a welcome surprise but almost certainly the calm before the storm.  The Conservative change of strategy - targeting Labour marginal seats rather than Lib Dem ones - was met with the baffled raising of eyebrows.

Lib Dems had expected Conservative supporters in the print press to unleash a raft of negative stories targeting the party on the morning of the last debate.  Instead, it is Labour that has taken much of the heat. Coupled with the Conservatives switching to target Labour seats, it seems like a pretty positive week for the Lib Dems.

For the Conservatives, the last minute change of strategy could be seen as a desperate roll of the dice.  A failure to gain ground in Lib Dem marginals had, it appeared, forced their hand.  With many marginal Labour seats requiring a swing to the Conservatives of up to 10%, things looked decidedly dicey for David Cameron. Today, that switch looks remarkably well timed.

Of course there is a further consideration. For many, immigration is a key issue in this election. Although it has been a costly diversion for successive Conservative opposition campaigns in the past, it finally looks to have broken into the national consciousness as a substantial concern. The feeling that political parties have conspired to avoid the issue has, rightly or wrongly, taken root.  Gordon Brown's comments yesterday will have served to confirm this in the eyes of many. For the Conservatives, seen as strong on the issue, yesterday's story has been a double boon.

So for Liberal Democrats, the Conservative threat has not been completely avoided. A swing towards the Conservatives could once again open up key marginal seats. The Lib Dem surge could yet be halted.

It's been a high octane week in British politics and it’s still not over. Tonight's debate promises to be hugely important, and as it stands, all bets are still off.  But as we saw yesterday – it only takes a thoughtless word to change the direction of this whole campaign.  It’s all to play for.

John Hood Linstock Consultant

www.linstockcommunications.com